Trần Thị Yến Nhi, Nguyễn Minh Phương
Sinh viên K60 – CLC Kinh tế quốc tế – Khoa kinh tế quốc tế
Trường Đại học Ngoại thương, Hà Nội, Việt Nam
Nguyễn Thúy Quỳnh
Giảng viên khoa Kinh tế quốc tế
Trường Đại học Ngoại thương, Hà Nội, Việt Nam
Abstract
The seafood industry is considered one of Vietnam’s spearhead economic sectors. The export of fishery products peaked in 2022 at 11 billion USD since Vietnam participated in the international seafood market in the early 1990s. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have severely affected the seafood export industry. The expansion of COVID-19 has posed challenges for fish trade worldwide. During the social distancing period, Vietnam’s fishery export value observed a downward trend. When the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, export transactions from Vietnam to both countries were halted and agriculture trade was significantly reduced. In the context of the seafood export industry starting to recover, forecasting the prospects of recovery is necessary to implement appropriate and timely measures for development of fishery export of Vietnam. This research uses the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method to forecast Vietnam’s fishery export value in the first half of 2024. The forecasting results follow the seasonal pattern from the previous years in the time series, showing significant fluctuations and lower than the previous year.
Keywords: Fishery export, Forecast, Exponential smoothing.